Monday, April 26, 2010

Backgammon update and a mea culpa

In my previous blog post, I outed a backgammon player (Pigeon from my previous posts), who had done a dick thing by running up a large debt and then skipping out. I exposed his name and a bit about his background because I thought by shaming him publicly, he might feel badly about himself and make good by paying up. Well, it turns out that I have had to redact my story at the request of the game organizer and I have to relay that I may not have had all the information available to make my charge.

The blogger's dilemma.

Here's what happened from my point of view. I have been playing Backgammon on and off at 60 Wall Street from some time now and I've gotten to know the players pretty well. They all know me as a small time player who will normally play $2 or $3 a point, and sometimes venture as high as $5, but never beyond that. The experienced players are always begging me to play them, knowing their skill level far outstrips mine, but I almost always decline and play Mr. Hustle, mostly because he is amenable to playing me for my $2 or $3 a point stakes. Also, Mr. Hustle is more than happy to instruct me on how to play properly and we have spent many hours debating the benefits of various moves on particular dice rolls and board situations. This is the cost of my education; my tuition, so to speak.

But a few months ago, Pigeon came to roost at 60 Wall and Mr. Hustle stopped playing me and started playing him. The stakes started at $5 a point and Pigeon was losing badly. 10, 15, 20, 30 points a session! Pigeon was very polite and would pay promptly when he lost, always coming back for more in a day or two. I knew Mr. Hustle depended on his Backgammon winnings for his livelihood, so when a particularly bad player like Pigeon was willing to play him for stakes that might result in a real payday, I didn't object when my game with him dried up. For his part, Pigeon refused to believe that he was as bad as people thought. He kept upping the stakes. First, from $5 to $10 a point. He continued to lose. Again, he would be down $200-$300 a session and would pay promptly when he lost. Then, he upped the stakes again. This time to $25 a point. When I witnessed this happening, I was astounded. Isn't it the definition of insanity when you do the same thing over and over and keep expecting a different result? But then again, perhaps Pigeon had this in mind after all. Maybe he was the biggest hustler out there and wanted to lose 100 points at low stakes so he could get it all back with interest at higher stakes.

Mr. Hustle, who gambles for a living, knew that $25 was above his bankroll, even if it seemed like easy money. He stuck to $10 a point and got another player to back the other $15 a point. During that first session, Pigeon broke even. Then $25 became the defacto betting amount for him. For each session, Mr. Hustle would put up his own money for $10 a point and then find someone to put up the other $15. He had no shortage of customers. Based on Pigeon's previous drubbings, it seemed like easy money. I did a few sessions with him myself, at $15 a point, and came away with a solid $250 profit after paying the house rake. But I noticed a disturbing trend around this time. Pigeon started getting frustrated with his losses and he would leave, almost without notice, and wave goodbye saying, "See you tomorrow". Mr. Hustle was understandably upset when Pigeon would leave without settling up, as is customary in any game played for money. But Pigeon would always return a day or two later, settle from the previous session, and continue on.

I warned Mr. Hustle to be wary of this behavior. I told him he should have Pigeon put 20 points worth of money in escrow with the game organizer, a trusted party, and then settle against the escrow amount after each session. But Mr. Hustle ignored my advice. Perhaps he thought that ruffling Pigeon's feathers would piss him off enough to drive him away. Or perhaps he just wasn't interested in confrontation. Either way, Pigeon kept playing his games and upping the stakes. Towards the end, he was playing for $50 a point, with more than one person taking a piece on the other side. After a particularly egregious loss, he left and never returned.

This is where the story gets murky. I came to 60 Wall one day to play and Mr. Hustle said Pigeon had left without paying and he wasn't coming back. He told me that Pigeon had called the game organizer, said he was in over his head and wasn't going to return, nor pay. It was a few days after that information that I made my blog post outing him.

But one day after I posted, the game organizer called me on my cell and asked me to take down the blog post with Pigeon's personal information. He said that Pigeon had always intended to pay and that the payment was supposed to come in a few weeks time. I asked if that had been the situation all along and he said it was. So I felt like an idiot. I had publicly outed this guy based on false information that I had. Don't get me wrong, he still did a dick thing by not paying his debts immediately, but I didn't know that he was negotiating with the participants after the fact. Mostly because I was told a different story from Mr. Hustle!

So I did a good thing for the community and tried to get a welsher to pay, but in reality I probably should have kept my nose out of it. After telling the story to Ali, she asked why I would even bother in the first place. It's not like Pigeon owed *me* money, after all. I replied that I felt that anybody who plays a cash game without the intention of paying, ends up degrading the gambling experience for everyone else. I was doing an altruistic thing by forcing this guy into the light and making the community I was a part of a little bit clearer and cleaner. But I wasn't totally in the right here, given the bad information I received. And for that, I apologize. I don't feel sorry for outing Pigeon, but for acting without the consent of the people whose main business this whole affair was. I should have gotten the permission of Mr. Hustle before I splashed his dealings out in public in this way.

Blogging is a hard thing to do.

The upside is that a day after my blog post and my redaction, Pigeon made good on his obligation. I saw him a day after that, playing Backgammon in Bryant Park (something I'd recommend for everyone on a nice afternoon). We exchanged knowing glances but no words as we each played different opponents. My previously amicable relationship with him is probably broken (not the first time I've burned a bridge to be sure) but I'm much much happier about it knowing that Mr. Hustle is getting his due.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Florida poker: All grown up!

The Florida legislature has finally passed true no limit poker for the state! The article doesn't make it clear when the new compact goes into effect, but this will have a huge impact on the state of poker in Florida. I can't wait to see how the casino developers take advantage of this!

Monday, April 19, 2010

Catching up

It’s been a while since I’ve posted and there’s lots to tell.

First thing’s first. I got a new job and I love it, so far. After I got laid off from Merrill Lynch in January of ’09, I had trouble finding anything for a while until the summer when I got a contracting position at A.I.G. to automate their financial reporting systems. Flash forward 8 months later and I had done the work I set out to do. Things had been slowing down at the office in terms of work and I knew it was only a matter of time until my manager brought me into his office to tell me there was nothing more for me to do and I would be asked to leave. Out of nowhere, I get a phone call from a man I used to work for at JPMorgan all the way back in 2002. He said that he had joined a new project at Thomson Reuters and the work they were doing was similar to the work I had done with him all those years ago. Being a natural fit, would I like to come aboard? My answer: sign me up! No sooner had I agreed to the interview process than my current AIG manager did indeed let me go from my contract. Perfect timing! I got the position at Thomson and have been there since April 1st, again as a contractor working on a long term project that will go for at least 18 months or more. Yeah, I don’t get health insurance, but my hourly rate is higher than it was at A.I.G. and I can use the difference to buy private insurance when my COBRA runs out in November.

Speaking of November, I’m getting married that month! Ali and I have set the date of November 6th, 2010 to tie the knot at The Marriott Resort in Aruba. We went down there for a little scouting trip from April 9th-12th and thought it was magnificent. I don’t want to give away too many details before the big day but suffice it to say, the beach wedding was a great idea for us. We got to spy on a wedding going on down there and the atmosphere itself, with the ocean gently lapping at the shore 15 feet from the bride and groom, with the sun setting behind them throwing hues of pink and purple on the shoreline, was absolute bliss. We met with the wedding coordinator and managed to get a lot of planning done in the short time we had available to us.

Also, I played poker. I had a very successful poker trip to AC with Christine the weekend before I started my new gig and was able to rack up an impressive +$1,000 weekend playing $1-$2 NLHE. I didn’t have a single huge session, more like a bunch of small wins here and there that added up. +$150, +$290, +$210, etc… Most of the time my wins were of the basic flop and trap variety, but the donkeys were paying me off something fierce. I’ve also added value betting to my repertoire. Previously in my career, when I have a marginal hand on the river but my opponent is out of position and playing passively, I’d check the river in position for fear of being trapped. But I’ve been leading out for 1/3 of the pot lately and more often than not, I will be ahead by a kicker or my small two pair will best my opponent’s TP/TK. The value bet only has to work 2/3 times to be profitable, so I’ll do it in position when I feel my opponent has been playing weak and looking to keep the pot small by check/calling. The strategy pumped up my profits pretty nicely, turning $50 profits on pots into $70-$80 profits.

A few days after that weekend, I went down with Darko for a two day mid-week trip and left with around $100 profit for the two days. My profit didn’t tell the whole story though. I made around $800 playing $1-$2 NLHE and gave back most of it playing $10-$20 OE. The mixed game at the Borgata continues to be my Achilles heel. I have trouble resisting it, even though I know it’s a bad value. First off, I’m a losing player at the game. Not badly (I’m down around $1,000 on the game lifetime over a few dozen session), but enough to know I’m not beating the game. The two main problems are that the players all know each other, leading to a lot of soft play which keeps new money from coming onto the table, and the fact that the players are locals and quite good at the game. There aren’t enough soft spots to feed off of, which should be my clue to give it up and go for something profitable ($1/$2 NLHE!).

So a note to anyone traveling with me: Keep me off the mixed games!!!!

{Story about Backgammon player redacted at the request of the game organizer}

Friday, March 19, 2010

Run horsie, run

It's been a few months now of watching Mr. Hustle take Pigeon for dozens and dozens of points at the 60 Wall Backgammon games. As I wrote in the past, Pigeon has a habit of trying to catch up to his losses by doubling down his bet and jumping from $10 to $25 a point. Mr. Hustle, though, in the spirit of excellent bankroll management, refuses to play for more than $10. So when Pigeon wanted to jump to $25 two weeks ago, another player, an old Yugoslavian guy, posted the other $15. That session ended in 7 points against Pigeon.

Staking arrangements are common in poker but I've never seen it done in Backgammon. I suspect there's plenty of it going on but I don't see it too often because Backgammon has a 'team play' concept called Chouettes. A Chouette is basically a way for multiple people to play one person. The person playing the others rotates until everyone ends up playing everyone else. Each person gets their own cube and is allowed to challenge the player 'in the box' (the one playing the others) anytime they want. Conversely, the person in the box can cube each person individually; either 'the captain' (the one playing for the team) or any of the other participants. This allows for interesting bankroll management situations in which the player in the box will drop some cubes and take others in the same position just to hedge themselves.

Because of the existence of Chouettes, the poker concept of stakehorsing doesn't happen as often. But here was a situation where the old Yugoslavian guy was essentially a silent partner in the one on one game. He was playing and wasn't giving advice, he was simply take $15 of action on each $25 point. Given how badly Pigeon has been losing, it was a pretty good bet and it worked out for him to the tune of $105. Well, two days ago, Pigeon lost 43 points to Mr. Hustle in a single session and I figured he'd be looking to get even again. The whole thing is funny because he's NEVER gotten even, but that didn't concern me. I know a good business opportunity when I see it. All I needed was the courage to pull the trigger.

I pulled Big Poppa (the guy who runs the games) aside and told him that if Pigeon was looking for someone to cover the $15 overlay, I was the guy. I trust Big Poppa implicitly and knew that he'd be able to handle the arrangement even if I wasn't there at the time the game started. Sure enough, I got a text message from Big Poppa at 11:20a that read, "you're on".

It was happening and there wasn't anything I could do about it. The feeling in the pit of my stomach was EXACTLY like how I feel when I put a position down in the stock market. I didn't have any control but my money was at risk nevertheless. 45 minutes later I got an update text from Big Poppa, "You're at minus 4".

No big deal. Minus 4 just meant that they were pushing and pulling and they were near even. But an hour later, I got another text that said, "you're at minus 12". 12 points is beyond the realm of standard deviation. It meant that Mr. Hustle was being beaten and my money was being lost! I went down to the 60 Wall atrium for lunch and observed the game. By the time I got down there, Mr. Hustle was at minus 17! I couldn't believe my crap luck. The one time I put my money down on a sure thing, I lose big. That sounded about right for me. When I left to go back to work, the session was minus 21 for me and I was getting pretty nervous. What if Mr. Hustle lost his cool and went on a bender. It happens in poker all the time and we've all seen it. You get steamed from taking bad beats and you end up losing your judgement along with more of your bankroll than you'd wanted.

So I pulled Big Poppa aside and told him to monitor the game and text me if the count went to minus 30. At that point I would come down again and make a game time decision to pull out if I thought my horse was losing it. 45 minutes back at work I got a text, "you're at minus 4". It was the beginning of a turnaround. Another 30 minutes later, "you're at plus 6".

At this time, it was near the end of the day so I knocked off work and watched the game until it ended at 7pm. Mr. Hustle was solidly in the black and Pigeon was getting rattled, taking really bad cubes and getting gammoned twice in a row. By the time the game was over, the Pigeon had lost 20 points and I had a nice $300 win booked to start my weekend trip to Atlantic City.

Backing bets, like the stock market, take courage in the face of losses. But if you've made a good deal and you believe in your bet, you need to ride out the roller coaster. It's hard to do, but it's where the good investors make their money. Lesson Learned.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

More on how Backgammon is like Poker

Tim Holland, a former Backgammon champion, died yesterday at the age of 79. Read his obituary in the Times. It's eerie how much he sounds like a poker champion, talking about how he lost money learning the game but got it back from the "sharks" when he finally could play.

For such a simple game, it's endlessly fascinating to my mind. I've been fortunate enough in the past few months to get into the Backgammon scene which is played every weekday at 60 Wall Street (Liberty Park during the warmer months). The guys there have taught me so much about the game that my skill level is now leaps and bounds above where it was when I started playing them for money a few months ago. Granted, I'm still a net loser by far but since I'm only playing them for $2 or $3 a point, the losses are easily handled. More than the right price to pay for such an education. Every so often I can make a good score too, like today when I won 12 points of $3 each in a quick session with another amateur player. I'm slowly improving.

One of the most interesting aspects of the game that I'm observing is the art of the hustle. I'm definitely a target for these guys but I know I'm not being hustled because I adamantly won't play for high stakes. The perfect "pigeon" is one who has a much greater idea of their skill than the reality and won't mind putting up real money. Even more than poker, Backgammon encourages bad players to think they're good because one lucky roll in a game can turn it around very quickly. And since there are only 36 dice rolls in Backgammon, vs. 52 cards in Poker, the lucky dice rolls happen more often.

There's a player who's new to the mix at 60 Wall Street, we'll call him Pigeon, who perfectly epitomizes this role. He showed up a few months ago playing for $5/point, which is relatively low stakes (roughly equivalent to playing $4/$8 limit poker). Not high enough to do real damage, but high enough that a really bad session could mean a loss of a hundo. Immediately, he latched onto my regular playing partner, we'll call him Mr. Hustle and began losing to the tune of 10-20 points a session. The sessions would last for hours and would occasionally end with Pigeon winning 5 or 6 points, but that was a rare event. In most cases, Mr. Hustle was on the winning end of things. Then, one day, I walked in to watch the match (which occurs most days starting around noontime) and looked at the score sheet. On top of the sheet, where the scorekeeper writes the stakes, there was written "$10".

I was floored.

Who in their right mind, knowing that they are a consistently losing player, would double the stakes? If you were getting your killed at $4/$8 over the course of a few weeks, would you suddenly move to $10/$20? I guess it's one thing to occasionally take a shot at higher limits, but only if you're a winning player, right? I asked Mr. Hustle about it and he just shrugged.

"I guess he thinks he can win. I warned him he's gonna get hurt sooner or later".

And there's my first lesson in the art of the hustle: always make sure your mark doesn't feel he's being forced into anything. By telling him he's probably going to lose, you play into his ego. Once his ego is bruised, his emotions take over and he starts chasing his losses.

Mr. Hustle won the first 6 sessions for a total of approximately 50 points net. That's when Pigeon lost his mind. The next time I walked in, the stakes were $25! This is like a $4/$8 player (a losing one), jumping up to $20/$40! This is where the real damage can occur! Mr. Hustle, though, was cool as a cucumber. Rather than risk his bankroll with an unlucky session, he stayed at the $10 level and let another player bank him for the remaining $15/point. Pigeon lost 7 points in that 4 hour session when the banking player had to leave. They dropped back down to 10 and Pigeon lost an additional 3 points before calling it a night. He was down 30 points at one point (!), but managed to make the miraculous comeback that convinces losing players they could be winners, if only they could keep rolling like that! Winning players know differently. Just as in poker, each player will get the same distribution of luck over the long haul. It's making the right plays the rest of the time that provides the difference. A few days later, with no backers in sight, Pigeon lost a whopping 43 points in one session at $10/point! Imagine losing 4 buyins in limit poker in one session and you'll get the idea of how bad that is.

In true Pigeon fashion, they're playing today and Pigeon has won 7 points back. He'll be back again and again and again until he's lost enough where it hurts him to come back. Astonishing.

In all of this Mr. Hustle has smiled, offered advice (not always correctly) and been very friendly. Everytime Pigeon loses, Mr. Hustle tells him how if only this roll had been different or that roll had been different, Pigeon would have won. He bolsters Pigeon's spirits, all the way happily collecting his winnings.

Hustling for money isn't something I ever plan on doing, but boy is it fascinating to watch human nature at it's most basic. And just like poker, the best advice is always to be dispassionate and analyze your position as coldly and in the most calculated fashion possible. Check your ego at the door.

Skeptical about James Lipton

There's a meme going around that James Lipton, the host of The Actor's Studio, wrote the theme song to The Thundercats. It has the air of plausibility to it as Lipton has had a long and very varied career. In addition to his enormously popular TV interview show, Lipton has:

A. Written a Broadway Musical
B. Produced Carter's presidential inauguration for TV
C. Voiced a central character on radio's "Lone Ranger"
D. Wrote for and acted on Soap Operas
AND
E. Is a published novelist

So is it hard to think that somewhere in his career he might have written the theme song for one of the most popular and beloved cartoons of the '80's?

I did some research on the internet on IMDB.com (the all knowing internet) and Lipton is indeed listed as a theme composer. I went to his Wikipedia page and he's also credited there. But looking closer I noticed something odd; namely that the Wikipedia page merely links to the IMDB page as proof. I did a general search on Google for "James Lipton + Thundercats" and other than lots of of links to the original meme (and other pages repeating it), I could find no other proof of James Lipton having written the Thundercats theme.

I don't know why I was suspicious to begin with, but it didn't seem...right somehow. My brain is just wired to be suspicious like this. Things that sound too good to be true, or too neat, just don't usually work out like that.

So along with James Lipton as the theme composer on Wikipedia, another name, Bernard Hoffer, was listed. My theory was starting to form that someone modified the IMDB.com page for James Lipton to give him composer credit, for the hell of it I assume, and it took on a life of it's own. I did more research on Hoffer and discovered that not only is he credited as the theme composer on multiple websites and fan pages, he's also the theme composer for Silverhawks, which was practically the same cartoon made by the same production company that came out the year after Thundercats.

So what's more likely, Bernard Hoffer who composed multiple times for Rankin and Bass (the production company) or James Lipton (who you'd think we would have heard of this years ago)?

Occam's Razor, dude. I'm going with Hoffer. All this underscores to me is that information can be fluid and getting the whole picture requires common sense. I take a lot of what I hear with a grain of salt to begin with, so this doesn't change my life all that much. Hopefully, though, this post may put a stop to this stupid ass rumor.

Unless, that is, I'm totally wrong and James Lipton actually DID write the theme to The Thundercats. Which would be AWESOME!

P.S. I'm too lazy to link to everything right now but I might later.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Min cash - Mini-FTops Event #1



After winning a $0.75 sattelite to get into the first Mini-FTops Event of the season, I min-cashed in 1378th place out of 18,875 runners! Wow, that's a lot of runners. I made $41.53 cents, which isn't bad considering it was practically a free roll.

After being card dead most of the tourney, and never being above the chip average even once, I was looking good to bubble when I got JJ 2x in a row and doubled up on each one of them. First it was JJ > TT and then it was JJ > AK suited. That let me accumulate enough chips to coast into the money, although there was a scare when I had AA with 100 people to go to the bubble. There was a raise PF and I opted to shove my stack vs. playing cute. He folded and I cruised into the money. I tread water for a while, watching people bust out at a furious pace and then managed to triple up when, with 8 BB's left, I called a 4 BB all in with 9T. When the BB went all in over the top, I was priced in. To my horror, the SB had 44 and the BB had AK! My flush draw was dead. With great luck, I managed to flop a Ten on a board of T86, hit a T on the turn and rivered the 8 for the win!

I was now at the average chip stack and was hoping to ride a wave to make something happen. People at the table were shoving like crazy and I was waiting for my chance. It took longer than I wanted, but I finally got QQ and got a big stack to move all in on me when I only raised 4x the BB with it. He shoved, I called and he showed 88. The flop was 467, the turn was a J and the river was the dreaded 8 (though a 5 would have been just as bad). Cest La Vie.

I'm happy with my performance and cashing is better than losing.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Minimalist Heaven

My friend Jay has created a slice of Nirvana. A perfect blend of minimalism and post-modern angst.

I present: Pigeon eating a bagel

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Why you should only play poker in a casino

If only for big money tournaments....

SECURITY! One of the most under-appreciated features of casinos is their elaborate and highly effective security systems. You don't see those armies of security guards but they see you, and they're well paid to take care of any funny business. Evidently, the European Poker Tour ignored this fact when hosting a recent 1 million Euro first prize tournament and the tourney was ROBBED, mid-game. The tournament was being held at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Berlin.

Yikes. I'd love to know what the fallout is going to be. I assume the tournament is canceled and all participants (even those knocked out) will get their buy-in back?

UPDATE: Video of the actual robbery has been released! Holy moly.

FTops Warrior

On a lark, just to spend a few minutes playing this morning, I entered a cheapie Mini-FTOPS satellite to the Mini-FTOPS event #1....and took it down.

See you guys on the felt on Wed., Mar. 10th!