Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Good Look club hand analysis

I played at Good Look last night and I nearly got felted. I bought in for $200 and reloaded for $100 twice. I cashed out with $65 at midnight and I’m convinced I didn’t play too badly. Yes, I played too many hands towards the end but only because I was frustrated about my lack of good starting hands. That’s the problem with the grinder game. Sometimes your category 1 hands just don’t show up. The guy in the one seat at the table had a ridiculous run of them though. He flopped the flush at least three times and showed pocket Aces (all of which stood up!) at least another three times. That’s an insane statistical improbability for a 2 hour session. I lost most of my money on a single hand which I want to break down here. I’m convinced I did the right thing, but I just want to put it down on paper to make myself feel better!

I was playing a bit loose and I got Kd5d on the button. The one seat, under the gun, made it $15 to go which was a reasonable raise at this table. I knew he had a strong hand but I saw 4 calls in front of me and with $60 already in the pot I decided to gamble that I could crack the table with this hand. I figured that for $15 in position, I could see a flop and then get away easily if I didn’t hit. Well, the flop came down with 10d Jd 6c. I had hit a flush draw. Granted, it wasn’t the nut flush draw, but it was pretty decent. Everyone checked around to me and I sensed enough weakness to bet out the draw. I didn’t want to put too many people out., just sweeten the pot enough that if I made my draw I would hit big. I bet $15. At this point, I put the one seat on something like AQ or AK. I figured I might be able to even take the pot down right there although that was an iffy possibility. The one seat immediately re-raised me to $45. Everyone else folded to the check raise. It was $30 more to me and I now put him on KK or AA. I decided call because it was $30 more to see a pot of $130. That’s more than 4-1 and I was nearly getting pot odds to call. I was definitely getting implied odds when you consider I knew his remaining money (only $54) would most assuredly be going into the pot. I couldn’t be stuck for too much more and I would be able to see the turn and river for a fixed amount. The turn was a Qs. I now had an open ended straight draw AND the flush draw. My outs, as far as I knew, were 15. The one seat, of course, went all in for $54. It was $54 to me for a pot that now had $214. I agonized over the call while I did the math in my head but I eventually made the call. The river, unfortunately, was the Qc and I only had King high. He had Ad Ah and took down the pot.

I actually had fewer outs than I thought because he had two fo the Aces I needed and one of the diamonds, but that still left me with 13 outs. That's plenty to make the river call once the Queen hit on the turn. Such is life. If I had hit that draw, I would be well up for the night. I’m convinced I did the right thing.

Anyone disagree?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I don't think you played that hand very well at all.

I wouldn't mind the pre-flop call in position if you were deepstacked, but if you're putting 10% of your chips pre-flop, you can easily become committed with a hand that is a big dog to hit. Speculative hands like that fit if you have effective stacks of like $500 (meaning you have that money AND your opponents can pay you if you make your monster). With $200, you're silly to play those hands and in the long term, I think they are not going to be money winners for you.

Also, I hate your flop bet. You are essentially representing that you're weak. Sure, you were up against AA and you kinda almost put him on it even prior to betting, blah blah, but you bet < 25% of the pot? That's ridiculous. You might as well turn your cards over and ask if anyone wants to play against a draw. If you really thought you were up against AA trying to check-raise, then just check behind and try to make your hand for free. But, if you think the entire field is weak, bet a normal amount -- at least 2/3 of the pot (here like $45). Same result in this hand (== he check raises you all-in for $54 and you grudgingly call) BUT you are guaranteed to see both cards (you wouldn't be if a couple players called your $15 silliness and then one of them shoved a non-diamond turn). Also, if your man had a hand like AK or 99 (both hands are substantially ahead of you throughout) he is less likely to call for $45 than for $15.

1. don't play cards that need a lot of help without a big stack and the chance to make a LOT of money
2. don't bet < 1/2 pot. EVER.

You're welcome.