W and I had a conversation last night where I gave her some advice. I'm not entirely positive, however, that it was correct. I *think* it was correct but I'd like to hear more opinions.
The situation is this: W has been bubbling an awful lot in her tournaments, for whatever reason. She has also been admittedly frustrated because she has been "running bad" (her words). We were playing in a Wall Street sit n' go last night where there were still 9 players in at the third blind level. Blinds are 75/150. W has about 1500 in front of her in EP. She limps and possibly one other player limps as well. Matty Ebs, on the button, raises to 600 in his usual nonchalant style. When it gets back to W, she goes into the tank for a while then shoves all in. The other player folds and Matty calls saying, "you're behind", before flipping over AA. W has 77. A 7 flops but an Ace turns and it's all over for W.
My call on this is that it was too early in the tourney to shove all in with a middle pair. W's contention was that the blinds were swinging around, chopping 1/3 of her stack and that Matty Eb's range was so wide that she could easily have been leading with 77. I maintained that it was early enough that even with only 1000 chips, she could see another 20 hands before being forced to shove and that 77 is too easily beaten, either by overcards or a counterfeited two pair or, in this case, an overpair.
What do you think?
On another note, I was also running low on chips (about 1800) in a later blind level (200/400). I picked up QJo on the button and faced a min-raise from Matty Ebs. I shoved and he called with the same AA and the same speech about me needing to catch! I nearly cracked him but he held up. Now as a corollary, I think my move was more warranted than W's in this situation. My stack was shorter in comparison to the blinds even though my hand was weaker. However, I'm dominated by a much shorter range of hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, KJ, KQ are the hands which kill me. But I'm 60/40 to hands like AT, A9, A8, KT, K9 and even money with hands like TT, 99, 88, 77. Matty had an enormous stack at that point, so he could very well try to pick me off with a less than premium hand, given that it was only 1000 to call a pot of nearly 3000.