Thursday, March 27, 2008

Poker situations

W and I had a conversation last night where I gave her some advice. I'm not entirely positive, however, that it was correct. I *think* it was correct but I'd like to hear more opinions.

The situation is this: W has been bubbling an awful lot in her tournaments, for whatever reason. She has also been admittedly frustrated because she has been "running bad" (her words). We were playing in a Wall Street sit n' go last night where there were still 9 players in at the third blind level. Blinds are 75/150. W has about 1500 in front of her in EP. She limps and possibly one other player limps as well. Matty Ebs, on the button, raises to 600 in his usual nonchalant style. When it gets back to W, she goes into the tank for a while then shoves all in. The other player folds and Matty calls saying, "you're behind", before flipping over AA. W has 77. A 7 flops but an Ace turns and it's all over for W.

My call on this is that it was too early in the tourney to shove all in with a middle pair. W's contention was that the blinds were swinging around, chopping 1/3 of her stack and that Matty Eb's range was so wide that she could easily have been leading with 77. I maintained that it was early enough that even with only 1000 chips, she could see another 20 hands before being forced to shove and that 77 is too easily beaten, either by overcards or a counterfeited two pair or, in this case, an overpair.

What do you think?

On another note, I was also running low on chips (about 1800) in a later blind level (200/400). I picked up QJo on the button and faced a min-raise from Matty Ebs. I shoved and he called with the same AA and the same speech about me needing to catch! I nearly cracked him but he held up. Now as a corollary, I think my move was more warranted than W's in this situation. My stack was shorter in comparison to the blinds even though my hand was weaker. However, I'm dominated by a much shorter range of hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, KJ, KQ are the hands which kill me. But I'm 60/40 to hands like AT, A9, A8, KT, K9 and even money with hands like TT, 99, 88, 77. Matty had an enormous stack at that point, so he could very well try to pick me off with a less than premium hand, given that it was only 1000 to call a pot of nearly 3000.



HighOnPoker said...

When you were discussing the hand with Wendy, I remember telling her that the play wasn't bad, and I still think her play made sense. It's very situation-specific, but Matty Ebs showed up late to the tournament. He is already a loose player. In many situations like that, a loose player will play even looser since he's missed out on the early action. His range was huge. At the same time, if she was going to have to commit 1/3 of her stack within 4 hands, she's essentially in desperation mode. 77 is a great hand, considering she's only getting 5 more hands before she's crippled. All that means push away and hope to take the blinds, expect a race, and pray to not be dominated.

With your hand, most of the same concepts apply, although overall, I like the raise less. Again, it's a loose player, this time with lots of chips, and therefore more likely to loosen up. He only min-raised, but you had to expect that you would be called since you were so short. So, essentially, when you put your money in, you are going all-in on a probable cointoss. Since you were so short, I think its justified, but at least in Wendy's situation, she might pick up the pot OR be called by an underpair.

Alceste said...

I would probably have folded pocket7's there in early position (at that table).

Open pushing is an entirely defensible play, but depending on how much time is left in the level, I think 10BB at that particular table is probably too many chips to start pushing

at the same time, 10 BB is too few chips to call with a medium pair from early position (again, at that table, where you have players like Jordan and MattyEbs -- same could be said for Abbie and Lana or even W herself -- who are more likely to raise than some of the WS crowd), since you pretty much have to be able to double up to realize your implied set odds.

I am not sure I shove after the min-raise -- you're laying 2.75:1 odds with the dead money from the blinds and the other limper, so there's almost no fold-equity (on this particular hand - this is a table with a fair amount of fold-equity relatively speaking) -- aside from the hammer though, I think every other hand with which Matty Ebs is going to raise is a calling hand. Down to 9BB, I think I would wait for the chance to get my money in first over the next orbit.